Is public opinion a force for good government or not? If recent events in Burma, Pakistan and Georgia show anything at all it is that public opinion is ultimately  the basis of power and legitimacy. Which is something several political philosophers have told us for over 200 years, but it is fascinating to watch these struggles unfold.

And it explains why authoritarian regimes are always keen to control public opinion by:

• Controlling broadcasting and the press
• Pumping propaganda at the population
• Restricting means of open debate and discussion about public issues.

But they also know, to their frustration that public opinion about the regime is forming all the time. Because there is always everyday talk. No matter how draconian the controls on information flows imposed by the regime people will meet in the normal traffic and business of life. And they will talk about public concerns. Opinion leaders will shape the views of those around them. Debate and discussion in bars, pubs, homes, workplaces, schools and so on will go on all the time. The mass media do not always mediate reality. The regime is being discussed and assessed all the time. Public opinion is forming all the time.

Authoritarian regimes know that life is easiest for them when public opinion supports their rule, then they do not need to rely on force. For brute force is an unpredictable tool. The police and soldiers that a regime relies on to impose rule by force can turn suddenly and refuse to continue to brutalize the same population from which they themselves have emerged. Authoritarian regimes know that majority opinion in any country is also likely to be majority opinion within the police force and the armed forces. It makes for a fragile basis on which to base any form of rule.

But, again, as recent events in Burma, Pakistan and Georgia demonstrate one must not romanticize the power of public opinion. This is for a number of important reasons. First, it is not easy to get majority opinion to form and solidify in complex, divided societies where ethnic or other cleavages are sharp. It is all too easy for authoritarian regimes to divide and rule. Secondly, structural factors can delay the impact of public opinion.  Each context differs and delayers are many.

Nonetheless, what is clear is that the fear of public opinion by authoritarian regimes is eloquent testimony to the potential of public opinion as a force for good, responsive and accountable government. Public opinion is a force that change agents in all societies need to study and understand and deploy skillfully and well. I trust that you get my meaning. If you don't or if you disagree, please let me know. I am willing to discuss and debate this for as long as you like. And that's a promise!